Year-end Market Update

Screenshot 2021-01-08 at 17.17.20

Hello house-enthusiasts!

This will be my last market-watch of the year and I will join the chorus of people who are glad to see the back of this one.

Despite everything, the housing market in San Francisco and the Bay Area has proved to be resilient and seemingly pandemic-proof unless you’re selling a condo in SOMA/FiDi. 

I am still seeing a highly competitive market for buyers, especially those looking for a single family home, with the average sales vs list price at 106%. It’s a great time to buy a condo if you’re looking for a bargain and there are some great ones out there. In general, my personal law of the 3 Gs applies – good properties in good areas are selling at great prices.

If you’re looking to buy your dream house, then be super focused on what and where you’re looking to buy and ACT FAST. Do your due diligence quickly and make a considered offer. And choose a good agent to work with.

Happy Holidays everyone. If you want to take advantage of the Holiday lull and look to buy, I’ll be here working in your interest to find and secure your next home.

August Market-tracker

Sept Market-Tracker data

Hello Friends and Prospective Buyers,

I hope you’re all keeping well despite the barrage of bad luck being thrown our way: The continued challenges of the pandemic, the fires throughout California, the on-going protests and the bombardment of political ads coming our way in preparation for the upcoming election. I’ve said it before, 2020 continues to be a collective ‘annus horribilis’.

In previous months I’ve commented on how current events will take their toll on the property market. The view that the San Francisco property market is immune to macro-economics, a bubble that will continue to grow is misguided and that bubble has burst.

I’m no pessimist, in fact, I believe there’s always opportunity for buyers and sellers, whatever the market looks like. I’m also not just giving you my opinion, I’m constantly monitoring the market, so with this in mind let’s look at the data and why I believe it’s a good time to buy in the city:

Firstly, the amount of condos for sale is the highest it’s been in SF for 10 years. Problem is, they’re not selling – the Months Supply of Inventory Index (MSI) is nearly 7 months – a balanced buyer/seller market is 4-5 months – and areas like District 9 (Condos in high-rise buildings whose main attraction WAS proximity to downtown) are particularly badly hit. The Condos that are selling are larger ( 2+ bed), within smaller buildings, with outdoor space and in good locations which is n’t rocket-science but does explain how The Median Sales Price (MSP) for Condos and Average Price Per Square Foot has increased yr-on-yr as these data point are over-indexing on this type of condo while overall sales are low. A good example would be a new-build, two-unit condo building around the corner from me in Alamo Square that came onto the market last weekend – both units sold within 2 days +10% over asking and they were listed at $2.6 and $2.9M respectively. This is the exception, so distorting the data somewhat. Nevertheless, I still have clients who are looking to bag a bargain loft in South Beach and are waiting just a little longer to swoop in and buy.

Moving onto the Single Family Home market and the pattern is similar but not as dire: Inventory levels are at the highest since 2011, the MSI is four months – suggesting a more balanced market, moving from the sellers market status quo enjoyed for many years in the city – and prices have dropped in the less desirable neighbourhoods, spreading to the more established ones. Again, I have a client who is looking to buy a fixer-upper in a good neighbourhood who is monitoring 2 to 3 properties, waiting for the next reduction from the seller to pounce.

Opportunities are out there and they’re looking more and more attractive.

One more thing, there’s been a lot of talk about the SF city exodus to neighbouring areas but how true can this be? From personal experience, I’ve recently been house-hunting for clients in Marin, Napa and Mid-Peninsula and I can tell you the market is extremely competitive which the data – I can send you on request – certainly backs-up along with the market updates we’re getting from partner agents … If people are leaving, will that make SF an even better opportunity for buyers in the coming months?

As always, if you’d like more data or to chat about any of the information above or better still, if you’re ready to make your next move, you know where to find me!

July Market-tracker – Buy, Buy, Buy!!

JulyMarket-tracker headline

Hello Everyone,

As we head into the second half of this annus horriblus that 2020 undeniably is, the impact of the pandemic is creating a continued divide in the desirability of single family homes and condos.

While year-on-year sales are down across both categories, it’s definitely a “Tale of Two Cities”: As the inventory level of single family homes has decreased slightly, prices are holding up and days on market remaining static. With condos, inventory is stockpiling as they’re simply not selling and prices are tumbling. This is particularly true of District 9 (Central Waterfront, DogPatch and SOMA in particular) where we have more high-rise, high-density housing, lack of neighborhood amenities and the need to be close to your place of work has all but disappeared. This will only get more pronounced if the federal stimulus package is halted and we see a second wave of the pandemic take hold in the coming months.

It’s not all doom and gloom for condos as some neighbourhoods like Noe Valley, Eureka Valley and Clarendon Heights in District 5 appear to be more stable – no doubt benefiting from being in smaller buildings in more established neighbourhoods – so it will be interesting to see how long this continues.

In short, if you have a higher risk tolerance then now is a good time to take advantage of the deals that are unfolding in District 9 in the belief that the market will rebound at some point in the medium to long term future or maybe you’d like to wait a little longer and see how more established neighbourhoods perform in the coming months.

If you’d like more district-by-district data – or data on what’s happening in Marin for example – then please get in touch and as always, if you’d like to discuss buying or selling a property then I’d welcome your call!

Stay safe and hopefully, we’ll speak soon.

June Market-update

June marketwatch header

Hello Everyone,

I hope you’re all keeping safe and well. For some months now I’ve been talking about a correction in the San Francisco property market as the pandemic takes its toll. Well – according to the data – what we’re now seeing is not a blip but a pattern of behaviour that will have significant impact on the property market here.

The data points show that Francisco property – both Single Family Homes and Condos – are sitting on the market for longer and sales prices are slowly trending downwards. Interestingly, the absolute reverse is happening in Marin (Let me know if you’d like to see the data for Marin and I’ll send it to you). Simply put, San Francisco is a buyer’s market and Marin a seller’s market. It’s my belief that this trend has some way to go as the full effects of the pandemic are yet to be realised. The big factor here is how people’s working habits have changed, irreversibly in my opinion, and many have re-evaluated where and how they want to live. The market is only now showing signs of this big change and we are also only seeing the beginning of the impact of property prices in San Francisco and elsewhere in the Bay Area.

For further information or to talk about your property needs and wants feel free to get in touch on 415 515 0816 or email me at [email protected] I’d love to hear from you!!

May Market Update

Screen Shot 2020-06-11 at 13.55.52

Up until now within San Francisco, inventory levels – year-on-year – have been understandably massively down. Buyers are still out there looking which has meant that prices have not dropped despite the impact of the pandemic on the economy. Now that the May numbers are in, what does the landscape for property sales look like? 

Firstly, we can take a look at what is happening Across Corcoran’s own business in terms of properties sold in (mainly) San Francisco on the buy-side since April:

  • 44% of sales were multiple offers
  • 23% under asking
  • 52% over
  • 25% at asking
  • 38% were cash/non-contingent buyers 

As of this blog posting, I’m waiting on yr-on-yr comparisons but the high percentage of multiple offers at over asking price would suggest a robust market in terms of prices holding up across the board.

However, these are TOTAL sales and not broken out by housing type, area & price range amongst other indicators. If we dig a little deeper and take a look at May MLS data we can begin to see the market in San Francisco softening, particularly for condos:

  • SFH Inventory -35% yr-on-yr  (178 new listings)
  • SFH Median price dropped 3% from $1.685M to $1.63M
  • SFH DOM is unchanged at 13 days
  • Condos Inventory -6% (291 new listings)
  • Condo Median price dropped 10% from $1.23M to $1.1M
  • Condos DOM is now 33 days compared to 14 days this time last year

What we’re beginning to see is the definite drop in the desirability and price of condos in San Francisco.  Across the properties I’ve been monitoring over the last 12 months, I’ve seen condos not holding their value in District 9 (eg. SOMA, South Beach) with condos bought in 2016 in particular selling at losses now. I’m also beginning to see this pattern in the more established neighbourhoods in District 5 (eg. Haight Ashbury/Mission Dolores) and even into District 7 (Lower Pac Heights). 

In terms of how big this drop will be and how long it lasts for it’s way too early to say but the early warning signs are there.

Barry Cronin

415.515.0816   [email protected]   02091594

Your Name (required)

Your Email (required)

Test Button